Others are more cautious but investors overall are betting oral and injectable semaglutide combined will supply around two-thirds of Novo’s revenue growth over the next five years, according to Thomson Reuters consensus data. "There is resistance in some patients to move to an injectable medication,” said Dr. So far, all have been injections.Today, GLP-1s are embraced as a highly effective diabetes therapy and semaglutide, which was approved as a once-weekly injection in December, has out-gunned rivals in efficacy.Chief Science Officer Mads Krogsgaard Thomsen said Novo would pay close attention to such factors as it tries to reach the three-quarters of diabetics who are not yet on injections.O), which has a product in early-stage trials.Novo’s oral semaglutide medicine is important for ensuring the group’s long-term growth - a critical mission after 2017 results last week revealed mounting price pressure in a crowded market targeting the world’s 450 million diabetics.That represents a life-line for Novo as it tries to differentiate itself in diabetes at a time when its smaller biopharma division is also struggling, prompting last month’s abortive attempt to buy Belgian biotech Ablynx (ABLX.SHUFFLING TREATMENTSDoctors hope oral semaglutide will provide a new weapon to tackle diabetes earlier with a highly effective therapy.

Novo’s nearest rival in developing an oral GLP-1 is Israel’s Oramed (ORMP. Gaglia in Boston said price would be critical in determining its uptake both among U.” That may be sour grapes by Novo’s arch-rival, whose own work on developing an oral GLP-1 is only at the preclinical stage.N), are watching Novo’s final-stage oral semaglutide trials closely, ahead of the drug’s potential 2020 launch.S. But the needle is still a barrier. Key trials against Lilly and Boehringer Ingelheim’s pill Jardiance and Merck & Co’s (MRK.But making patients wait half an hour for breakfast could affect adherence and is a concern for investors - as is the question of what Novo will charge for a drug that may perform as well as a pricey injection but looks like rival pills that cost half as much. insurers and cost-conscious European healthcare systems. While diabetics with advanced disease need daily insulin shots, those at a less serious stage start on simple tablets, with GLP-1s added as a potent new option since 2005. "Once an oral is available I think there will be significant interest in it.N) Januvia will report later in 2018.Most analysts expect oral semaglutide to beat these rivals in controlling both blood sugar and weight. "The highest limit of where we could consider taking the pricing would be injectable GLP-1 and the lowest level would be somewhere in between current oral drugs and injectable GLP-1,” Thomsen said.BR). Still, the devil will be in the details of the 10 Phase III trials, the first of which will deliver results this quarter. The size of the benefit will feed into Novo’s final pricing decision.If Novo gets over the pricing hurdle, Bailey and Gaglia believe the new pill is set to reshuffle treatment regimens, with oral semaglutide being used as a second or third treatment option after cheap, generic metformin.

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